Quick Game Preview: Can Huskies Run Over the Bruins?

Washington hosts UCLA in the Huskies’ first PAC-12 conference game of the season.

On paper, the key matchup is UCLA’s poor defense versus Washington’s superior offensive firepower, a more one-sided mismatch than it has been historically.

V

ery Poor Defense

UCLA’s overall defense is not good, surrendering 0.899 points per possession (ppp) which ranks in the 22nd percentile nationally.*

UCLA is not effective playing man-to-man defense (0.852 ppp/33rd percentile) but they are even worse at zone defense (1.034 ppp/21st percentile).*

UCLA is not effective at defending most offensive plays, whether it is catch-and-shoot (1.234 ppp/2nd percentile) , spot-ups (1.0 ppp/8th percentile), runners (0.704 ppp/47th percentile), isolation(0.935 ppp/12th percentile), hand-offs (0.882/31st percentile) or screen (0.882/38th percentile) actions.*

The Huskies will have a decided advantage in most offensive play types and should score a lot of points, particularly with Jaden McDaniels, Isaiah Stewart and Nahziah Carter having huge mismatches in most offensive situations.

F

astbreak? Piece of Cake

The Bruins struggle at preventing fastbreak scoring, allowing 1.074 points per possession (ppp) ranking in the 20th percentile nationally.*

Expect the Huskies fastbreak attack to be very effective against the Bruins with Quade Green, Nahziah Carter, Jaden McDaniels and Isaiah Stewart all feasting on UCLA’s poor transition defense.

B

ig Exception in the Middle

UCLA’s 6’10” Jalen Hill is an excellent post defender allowing only 0.25 points per possession on post-up plays, ranking him in the 99th percentile in defending plays of this type.*

Hill is the primary reason UCLA ranks in the 90th percentile for defending post-ups as a team, allowing only 0.697 ppp.*

If the Huskies run their offense through Isaiah Stewart, it could be a Battle Royale between Stewart and Hill, but give the edge to Stewart by a slim margin if he can stay out of foul trouble.

A

dvantage Huskies

If the Dawgs can get out in transition to score and complement pounding the ball inside to Stewart in the post, this should be a Huskies victory with a possible late blowout.