At the conclusion of their nonconference schedule, Washington finds itself with an 8-2 record against non-PAC-12 opponents; and a victory over their only PAC-12 opponent thus far, Washington State.
Washington’s overall record (9-2) is certainly good news to win-starved Huskies fans.
However, the question remains:
Are all nonconference wins created equal, when preparing for a brutal PAC-12 regular season gauntlet?
UW resumes its PAC-12 regular season in earnest on December 30th to close out 2022 — and again, on January 1st, 2023 to ring in the new year.
Many programs, if not all, use their nonconference schedule to improve and prepare their WBB team for the rigors of the regular season by presenting them with unique challenges.
Yet Washington’s nonconference schedule featured 10 mid-major programs and zero high major teams — i.e., Utah Tech, UC Davis, UC Irvine, Idaho State, Fordham, Santa Clara, Seattle, Queens University, Liberty, and SIUE.
Furthermore, eight of ten games were home games in the friendly confines of HecEd — with the remaining two games on a neutral court in Las Vegas.
This Huskies team has yet to face a road environment in front of an opponent’s home crowd.
In terms of degree of difficulty, even the most pollyanna observer could not argue UW’s nonconference opponents even faintly resembled a PAC-12 schedule.
To date, Washington’s nonconference foes have a combined record of 39 wins and 59 losses this season.
As of December 25th, Washington’s current Net Ranking (primarily based on win/loss record and on strength of schedule) was #115.
Only two of UW’s nonconference opponents were ranked higher, #84 Fordham (with a 7-5 record) and #102 Santa Clara (8-5).
Ultimately, however, the apparent weakness of Washington’s nonconference schedule is only relevant as it applies to their actual play on the court.
Here’s a quick overview of the Huskies performance, thus far, and how we project it may translate to PAC-12 conference play.
REBOUNDING
Rebounding is the highlight of Washington’s play at both ends of the court.
The Huskies are averaging 44.2 total rebounds per game, which ranks nationally.
Washington pulls down 27.4 defensive rebounds per game — ranking in the Top 27% nationwide.
Where the Dawgs excel most is at offensive rebounding, pulling down 16.8 offensive rebounds per game — which ranks in the Top 3% nationwide.
Although statistics may be skewed because the Huskies towered over most of their opponents, rebounding mostly requires effort and timing which should be transferable against PAC-12 opponents.
However, because of their height advantage, some Huskies may have developed the bad habit of not always boxing out when a shot is taken, instead just turning and running to rebound.
If UW defenders do not box out against PAC-12 foes, they will likely pay for it by surrendering an offensive rebound — however, this is literally a minor adjustment.
Concern Level: Low
TURNOVERS
Washington averages 16.6 turnovers per game which ranks 201st nationally — in the bottom half of all Division One programs.
The largest concern about the Huskies turnovers is that they came against relatively weak competition.
The question remains if this was due to some level of carelessness that comes from playing a weak opponent or from a lack of preparation for pressure defense or some combination thereof.
Either way, PAC-12 defenses will feast on team that shows any weakness in dealing with ball pressure.
However, this can be corrected by the UW coaching staff in practice sessions prior to PAC-12 play.
Concern Level: Moderate
SCORING – OFFENSE
Simply put, Washington has a scoring problem.
The Dawgs are averaging 67.0 points per game, which ranks them 163rd among all Division One teams.
Furthermore, the Huskies are below the national shooting average from everywhere on the court, except in the lane and on two-pointers from the right elbow.
Chart courtesy of CBBAnalytics.
Concern Level: High
THREE-POINT OFFENSE
The Huskies are particularly bad from three-point range, making only 22% of their three-point attempts — ranking in the Bottom 3% nationwide.
The Huskies appear to be in deep trouble (pun intended) — considering the news that Alexis Griggsby (45.8% last season) will not return from ACL injury; and that the only active Huskies shooters making more than 30% of their three-point attempts this season is Lauren Schwartz (31.7% on 41 attempts versus 37.8% last season) and freshman wing Shayla Gillmer (50% on 2 attempts).
Unfortunately, there is usually no way to “fix” three-point shooting during the season, it just depends on whether a player gets hot from three-point range.
As we have mentioned previously, it would be an interesting if Gillmer were used as a designated shooter — but the time for experimentation may have passed.
Likewise, Washington big Darcy Rees holds a career three-point shooting average of 30.1% — with a season high of 35.8% from three-point range during the 2019-2020 season.
Currently, however, Rees is not being used as a three-point threat in the Huskies offense – instead being mostly limited to high post duties near the free throw line area.
Unless Lauren Schwartz returns to her shooting form of last season, the Huskies may be doomed to a PAC-12 season without a considerable three-point threat.
Concern Level: High
SCORING – DEFENSE
The Washington Huskies are holding opponents to 55.9 points per game, which ranks in the Top 11% nationally.
Of course, this comes with the caveat that Washington played all but two of their games at home; and against mid-major opponents (except WSU) with a combined losing record this season.
Thus, the elephant in the room is either the Washington defense was that good or their opponents were that bad at scoring.
It’s impossible to say, but it is very unlikely that the Huskies will hold PAC-12 opponents to under 60 points per game.
In UW’s victory over Washington State, the Cougs scored 66 points against the Dawgs, while shooting an abysmal 36.9% from the field (24 – 65).
Yet despite atrocious shooting overall, WSU still managed a very competent 37.5% from three-point range against the three-point defense of the Dawgs (our next area of concern).
Ultimately, there is supposed to be no substitute for good competition, but the Huskies will try to disprove that maxim when PAC-12 play resumes.
Concern Level: High
THREE-POINT DEFENSE
The Washington Huskies defense is allowing opponents to average 34.1% from three-point range, which ranks in the Bottom 15% of all defenses nationwide.
Chart courtesy of CBBAnalytics.
The Huskies have been struggling to defend the three-point lane in every game this season — against almost entirely mid-major offenses.
Unfortunately, this is likely to be the Dawgs’ “achilles heel” for the remainder of the PAC-12 season.
It will take major adjustments by the Huskies coaches to improve their three-point defense.
Concern Level: High
BLOCKS
We finish our overview on a high note. The Washington Huskies are averaging 4.5 blocks per game, which ranks in the Top 12% nationally.
However, expect that UW’s blocks will likely decrease in PAC-12 play, possibly by as much as 1.0 block per game.
Interestingly, Darc
y Rees is ranked #10 All-Time for career blocks at Washington, despite limited playing time the last two seasons due to injury.
y Rees is ranked #10 All-Time for career blocks at Washington, despite limited playing time the last two seasons due to injury.
Chart courtesy of gohuskies.com
As arguably the best low post defender on the current UW roster, it remains to be seen if Coach Langley will use Darcy Rees more during PAC-12 play — Rees is currently averaging 7.7 minutes per game.
Concern Level: Low
Ideally, UW’s nonconference schedule exposed Washington players to as many different experiences as possible, to limit scenarios that newer players will experience for the first time during PAC-12 conference play.
Based on this season’s nonconference opponents, it remains to be seen whether or not this Washington Huskies team is “on track” for a much improved PAC-12 season.
GO DAWGS!
*All statistics current as of December 25, 2022.