DO RETURNING HUSKIES PLAYERS PERFORM BEST IN TRANSITION?
Last season, the Washington Huskies averaged .937 points per transition play versus a 0.738 average points per half-court play, suggesting that the Huskies returning for the 2020-2021 season might be better in a fastbreak offense than in half-court offense.
Here, we will examine statistics of the eight returning players from the 2019-2020 season for some insight into a crucial question:
How will eight returning UW Huskies players from the 2019-2020 season influence Washington’s offense, after the graduation of leading scorer Amber Melgoza?
INDIVIDUAL PLAYER POINTS PER TRANSITION AND HALF-COURT PLAY
The below chart details the individual performance of Huskies veteran players based on their individual average points per transition play versus their points per half-court play, i.e., points per possession(PPP).
Darcy Rees leads the Dawgs with a transition average of 1.481 points.
Darcy is in the Top 1% of all NCAA players for transition scoring by points per possession (PPP).
These numbers prove that Darcy is an elite transition scorer, most likely due to her ability to hit transition three-pointers at a 50% clip.
Darcy Rees drains the three to give her eight points already!#AlwaysCompete x #GoHuskies pic.twitter.com/7Q3nHEKDmf
— Washington Women’s Basketball (@UW_WBB) January 4, 2020
As a result, Rees is scoring more points per transition opportunity than most.
The Huskies have another elite transition scorer in Haley Van Dyke, who averages 1.258 points per transition opportunity. Haley is in the Top 10% of all NCAA transition scorers (measured by PPP).
Missy Peterson with the rebound, Haley Van Dyke with the fastbreak bucket!#AlwaysCompete x #GoHuskies pic.twitter.com/7bXg6vOqNC
— Washington Women’s Basketball (@UW_WBB) February 22, 2020
The Huskies plethora of excellent transition scorers continues with Quay Miller. Quay is in the Top 10% of transition scorers (PPP) in the NCAA. Miller averages 1.212 points per transition opportunity, in most part, due to her unique ability to handle the ball in the open court and finish with speed and athleticism as a 6’3″ big.
Quay Miller with the steal and coast-to-coast bucket!#AlwaysCompete x #GoHuskies pic.twitter.com/u7MkYpbwpK
— Washington Women’s Basketball (@UW_WBB) February 8, 2020
The group of five Huskies with a transition average above 1.0 point is rounded out with Khayla Rooks(1.031) and TT Watkins (1.020) both in the Top 30% of NCAA transition scorers (by PPP) — two versatile players with a combination of 6’0″ or more size, solid ball-handling capabilities and athleticism.
[Huskies walk-on Callie Lind did not have sufficient playing time to accumulate reliable representative data to predict future performance.]
CALLIE LIND!!! The freshman walk-on scores her first collegiate basket with a three!#AlwaysCompete x #GoHuskies pic.twitter.com/YRFXCbBibO
— Washington Women’s Basketball (@UW_WBB) December 21, 2019
PLAYER SHOOTING PERCENTAGE PER TRANSITION AND HALF-COURT PLAY
No surprise that the Huskies with the highest transition field goal percentage are the same — although in slightly different order — as those with the highest points per transition opportunity, i.e., Darcy Rees at 72%; Quay Miller at 64%; Haley Van Dyke at 60.3%; TT Watkins at 50%; and Khayla Rooks at 45.8%.
The remaining returning veteran players have transition field goal percentages below 40%:
Missy Peterson at 39.1% is only slightly more efficient in transition than in half-court offense (39.0%); and
Lexi Griggsby is only slightly less efficient in transition (33.3.%) than in half-court (34%).
Although Lexi’s field goal percentage numbers are low across the board, she was most likely impacted by her return from injury last season.
Ultimately, every returning player for the Washington Huskies (except Griggsby) has a higher field goal percentage in transition than in UW’s half-court offense.
[Huskies walk-on Callie Lind did not have sufficient playing time to accumulate reliable representative data to predict future performance.]
PLAYER EFFECTIVE FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE (EFG%)* IN TRANSITION VS. HALF-COURT PLAY
*Shooting percentage of a player after accounting for the value of 3-point attempts.
(below is one of the equations which are used to find EFG%)
PPG = points per game
FT = the free throws made
FGA = field goal attempts
The EFG% Chart lists the players in the order they ranked in transition effective goal percentage.
The main discrepancy with the above section’s ranking based on overall field goal percentage is Khayla Rooks has a higher EFG% (60.4%) than TT Watkins (52.4% EFG), whereas Watkins regular field goal percentage in transition (50 FG%) is higher than Rooks (45.8 FG%).
This illustrates that Khayla is a more prolific 3-point shooter in transition, whereas Watkins takes more 2-pointers in transition (most likely driving to rim due to TT’s aggressive playing style).
Amber Melgoza fights for the loose ball and TT Watkins gets the layup!#GoHuskies pic.twitter.com/AQ2Wfe4Jio
— Washington Women’s Basketball (@UW_WBB) December 9, 2019
Conversely, in half-court offense TT’s effective field goal percentage (47.5%) is higher than Khayla’s half-court EFG% (39.1%). Thus, TT is a more effective three-point shooter in UW’s half-court offense than Rooks.
More significant for this discussion, all returning players (besides Griggsby) have a higher effective field goal percentage (EFG%) in transition than in Washington’s half-court offense.
[Huskies walk-on Callie Lind did not have sufficient playing time to accumulate reliable representative data to predict future performance.]
MAXIMIZING HUSKIES TRANSITION OPPORTUNITIES
We’ve established the returning Washington Huskies players are more efficient in transition. However, maximizing transition opportunities to take advantage of this is the next crucial step, and it’s usually easier said than done.
The Huskies are fortunate to have two elite transition players, Haley Van Dyke and Darcy Rees, as well as Quay Miller, who is an excellent transition player (Top 30%) in her own right.
To increase the Huskies’ offensive potency, Washington should try to provide as many transition opportunities as possible for Van Dyke, Rees and Miller.
Washington ranked eighth in the PAC-12 in team scoring with a 63.4 points per game.
It is significant that only 4.4. points separated the Huskies’ offense from Oregon State’s offense, which ranked fourth in PAC-12 scoring with 67.8 points per game.
Furthermore, only 6.8 points separated the Huskies’ offensive production from UW’s defensive production, which allowed an average of 70.2 points per PAC-12 game. This is the difference between wins and losses.
Jody Wynn’s Huskies are a defense-first program, however, finding more scoring has to be a priority with the graduation of Washington’s eighth all-time leading scorer, Amber Melgoza.
To continue the success Jody Wynn’s program has achieved with transition offense, as well as increase transition opportunities, expect to see some combination of the following.
1. Running with Haley Van Dyke
Ultimately, Haley Van Dyke just needs to continue where she left off, i.e., (i) sprinting up the court in transition for opportunities at the basket, as well as (ii) stopping at the three-point line with her feet set for more catch-and-shoot threes which she made at a 42.9% clip last season.
Based on her numbers, Haley’s 67.2% effective field goal percentage (EFG) in transition offense — up from her 60.3% regular field goal percentage (FG%) in transition — suggests that the Washington Huskies should prioritize Haley Van Dyke’s fastbreak catch-and-shoot threes over her fastbreak opportunities at the basket.
2. Running with Darcy Rees to Spot Up for 3-Pointer Opportunities
Darcy Rees is the quintessential “stretch five” i.e., a big that can stretch the floor with her three-point shooting.
Overall, Darcy makes 33.3% “catch-and-shoot threes” in half-court offense, i.e., shot after receiving a pass.
However, Darcy makes 50% of the threes she takes during a Huskies fastbreak.
Darcy is a sniper when spotting up from the three-point line in Washington’s transition offense.
Rees should continue this success but it will be up to Jody Wynn and her coaching staff as to how much this role for Darcy is emphasized in order to increase her fastbreak three-pointer opportunities.
3. Running with Quay Miller as a Rim-Runner
Quay Miller is a 6’3″ athletic anomaly, strong enough to bang against any PAC-12 big yet too athletic to be guarded by most bigs on the fastbreak.
Quay often gets free for fastbreak opportunities because she is quicker than the player she is guarding, i.e., if the Huskies force a turnover Miller can usually outsprint her defender to the offensive end.
If the Huskies officially designate Quay as a a rim-runner on every change of possession, the Dawgs may find Miller is consistently disruptive to opposing defenses and their bigs with her constant pressure up the middle.
This is a GIF from the rim-running portion of a HoopVision video about the uptempo offense of the Dayton Flyers on the men’s side of college basketball. Of particular interest, is the rim runner’s attempt to seal the defender at the free throw line or below to await the over-the-top pass (of course, disregard all the dunking).
click for entire Hoop Vision video here
Now here is Quay Miller with a similar rim run:
4. Running “Grab-and-Go” Offense with Fastbreak-By-Committee After Every Miss (and Some Makes)
The majority of the Huskies roster will be similar in height and stature (around 6’0″ )with only 6’4″ Rees and 6’3″ Miller as the two frontcourt bigs on their roster next season.
The Huskies may use this to their advantage on offense, if the interchangeable nature of their roster allows them to push the ball upcourt with multiple players as opposed to a designated point guard.
Missy Peterson, Quay Miller, Khayla Rooks, TT Watkins and Lexi Griggsby can all push the ball past half-court in transition offense. Likewise, redshirt freshman Nia Lowery can also push the ball up court.
(The Huskies incoming true freshman are all well-suited for a fastbreak offensive approach, i.e., point guard Tameiya Sadler, and both 6’0″ Jayda Noble and 6’2″ Alexis Whitfield are athletic wings.)
Washington may look to increase their fastbreak opportunities with this “grab and go” approach that some teams even use after made shots.
Although it may be unlikely to see the Huskies run after made shots this season, a fastbreak-by-committee approach might be the solution to increase Washington’s transition opportunities and put pressure on opposing defenses by keeping them on their heels.
Regardless of how Jody Wynn and her staff approach this coming season, this should be a talented team that is fun to watch.
GO DAWGS!
[NEXT UP: TEAM OFFENSE (PART TWO): How will the Huskies approach their Half-court Offense?]