Washington is ranked 44th in the KenPom rankings, while Utah is ranked 121st by Ken Pom.
UW’s defense (ranked 20th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency by KenPom) is better than Utah’s offense (64th in adjusted offensive efficiency) which is better than Washington’s offense (110th in adjusted offensive efficiency) which is better than Utah’s defense (193rd in adjusted defensive efficiency…..got that?
Washington Offense vs. Utah Defense
Expect Washington’s erratic offense to have its way with Utah’s defense which is particularly weak at defending the Pick & Roll (18th percentile/0.821 points per possession (ppp) defending plays of this type) and Spotup jumpers (26th percentile/0.922 ppp).
Although, the Huskies are only slightly above average in converting Spotup jumpers (52nd percentile/0.894 ppp) and Pick&Roll offense (53rd percentile/0.756 ppp), they shouldn’t face much resistance from the Utes. Utah Offense vs Huskies Defense
#20 Mikael Jantunen (97th percentile/1.2 ppp); Allen (95th percentile/1.0 ppp); Riley (69th percentile/0.92 ppp), all excel at postup offense. Expect Utah to pound the ball inside on the Huskies as much as possible.
Isaiah Stewart (37th percentile/0.891 ppp) will need help from Jaden McDaniels, Hameir Wright, Nate Roberts and Sam Timmins to spread the responsibility and fouls around.
Utah will also attempt to get open Spotup jumpers by going inside-out if they can their offensive post presence established. Timmy Allen (68th percentile/0.984 ppp); Riley Battin (91st percentile / 1.184 ppp), #15 Rylan Jones (91st pecentile / 1.234 ppp) and #25 Alfonso Plummer (85th percentile / 1.118 ppp) all can knock down spotup jumpers at a high rate.
However, in the end, the Huskies more talented, deeper bench and more balanced play will help Washington pull away for the victory.